A study in Germany investigated how the expulsion of a player influences the outcome of a soccer match, examining data from World Cup Championship games between 1930 and 2002.
The study concluded that the impact of a red card decreases with each increasing minute before expulsion.
So, what happened in Montreal back in 2015 was not just incredible, but almost impossible. The study stated that losing a player in the first half meant defeat more often than not for the carded team, yet there was no empirical data for what happens when your team is down two players in the first half.
Down two men for almost 100 minutes, the Humber men’s soccer team pulled off one of the greatest wins CCAA soccer history.
by Jim Bialek
November 14, 2014
MONTREAL, QC -- Simply put….WOW! As the author of this recap, bringing you the story of the Humber Hawks 2015 CCAA Championship win in penalty kicks, a 1-0 nail-biter over Capilano, can take so many paths. So, here goes.
Humber and Capilano, two of the strongest programs in CCAA men's soccer history, were going toe-to-toe for the first time in a national title game. Capilano entered the match, winners of a record six CCAA crowns, while Humber came into the game seeking its fifth title, and third in the last four years.
Humber advanced to the title game by not allowing a goal, winning 6-0 over the host Champlain squad, and 1-0 over a familiar foe in 2015 Bronze Medalists from Algonquin. Capilano had to fight back to avoid an upset in the opener but did so by defeating Holland College by scoring late in the game to break a 2-2 deadlock. They then went on a scoring rampage in a 5-1 semi-final win over fellow BC'ers from Kwantlen.
The game itself was one of heart and a legendary effort by the Hawks. Both teams came out aggressively, knowing that a single goal early could potentially win a title. In the first ten minutes, Hawks Dominic Roberts received his second yellow card and was ejected from the game. Being down a man put the Hawks in a hole which most teams cannot crawl out of.
For the next twenty minutes, Humber battled, and knew that everyone currently on the pitch would have to do extra duty if the team was to come out on top. What happened next would have crushed most squads. Hawk superstar Joshua Paredes-Proctor, a double goal scorer in the opener, was red carded and sent off for contact made at mid-field. Although the coaching staff and players argued vehemently, they were still saddled knowing they would have to play two men short for a minimum of the next sixty minutes. Little did they know that sixty minutes would turn into almost a hundred.
At half-time, the scoreboard still had zeroes for both teams.
Unwilling to just play for a tie, the Hawks pushed forward, Michael Aigbokie missed on a glorious opportunity, missing on a breakaway. Still pushing, Hawk Striker Jesse Assing was awarded a penalty kick but missed as well.
Fatigue would start to take over later in the second half, and Humber would rely on just clearing the ball and await another Blues attack. Capilano had a number of corners and relatively close free kicks and almost scored on two occasions. One was a header that struck the crossbar, and the other a magnificent stop by the hands of Hawk Keeper Eugenio Garro.
It was evident to see that over time, although physically taxing, would be the best strategy for Humber. They fulfilled this game plan to a tee, and got a short breather as the referee blew his whistle to end ninety minutes of play.
Overtime came and went, with still no decision rendered. So up came penalty kicks, with the 2015 CCAA title at stake. Could the Hawks muster enough energy, especially on weary legs, to compete in the five-kick exchange?
Compete, they did. Hawks scored, Blues scored, Hawks scored, Blues scored, Hawks scored, Blues scored, Hawks scored. At 4-3 for the Hawks, Eugenio Garro did what he did three years ago when leading the Hawks to Gold in a shoot-out. He made a spectacular save, and left the Hawks a single goal away from clinching the title. Hawk veteran Michael Aigbokie made up for his earlier miss by burying the ball into the twine.
After over two hours of play and the heart wrenching shoot-out, the Hawks were CCAA Champions.
Individual awards and then the medal presentation were next on the agenda. In another twist, or déjà vu one could say, Garro was selected as the Humber Hawk Player of the Game – just as he was three years ago.
Déjà vu hit once again, with Garro being named as the championship tournament Most Valuable Player.
Three Hawks were named to the Championship All-Star team. Receiving this special honor was Gerardo Magno, Jesse Assing and Janeil Hoilett.
This CCAA title is the second for Hawk's teams this year, and the thirty-second in Humber history, the most by any OCAA school.